“Artificial intelligence will reach human levels by around 2029. Follow that out further to, say, 2045, we will have multiplied the intelligence, the human biological machine intelligence of our civilization a billion-fold.”
– Ray Kurzweil
Hi Everyone,
Happy St. Patrick’s Day!!!
When you look at technology trends, first there is an invention of new technology, then there is an application of the invention, which is often referred to as the killer app.
A few examples, arguably the technology behind building telescopes (lenses) had been known for several hundred years but it wasn’t until 1608 that the first telescopes were invented, it appears that several people simultaneously conceived of the idea. Almost 100 years later Galileo and his team decided that they could use the telescope to better understand the universe. Great use of technology but only for a limited number of people. Then someone realized that as a merchant in a port city, you could scan the horizon and see trade ships coming to port earlier than your competitors (the killer application), and then every merchant in every port city was trying to get their hands on a telescope.
Kodak invented the digital camera in 1975. It was a big clunky device with mediocre resolution. Over the next 30 years, technology improved, and smaller digital cameras were available to a smaller group of photography enthusiasts. We all know the story of digital cameras including cellphones and then a huge wave of innovation happens, we get Facebook, Instagram, and flicker and it goes on and on. The killer application for the digital camera was its inclusion on a cellphone, as distribution increased, innovation increased. It’s a simple pattern that happens repeatedly with the inventions of new technology.
There are more than 1 billion people in the world who use Microsoft office. The Office franchise generated more than $63B in revenue and $29B in profit last year alone. It is arguably one of the most profitable franchises of all time.
That brings me to ChatGPT – The fastest-growing digital technology, ever! More than 100 million users in a couple of months. However, up until a few days ago, it was still only available to a handful of enthusiasts who were fortunate to sign up for an account early on.
Microsoft just announced that they are incorporating ChatGPT into the office suite. Not only will this profoundly change the “knowledge worker” experience, but Microsoft is going to enable more than 1 billion users with the capability of leveraging artificial intelligence in their daily routines. Think back on the camera and the cell phone, you have distribution and huge waves of innovation.
We are in for some very exciting times ahead! I look forward to discussing this in more depth on our Monday call!
Let’s go be great!
Brad